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<https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1537556> <http://purl.org/dc/terms/title> "Predicting local violence: Evidence from a panel survey in Liberia"^^<http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#string> .
<https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1537556> <http://purl.org/ontology/bibo/abstract> "Riots, murders, lynchings and other forms of local violence are costly to security\r\nforces and society at large. Identifying risk factors and forecasting where local violence\r\nis most likely to occur should help allocate scarce peacekeeping and policing resources.\r\nMost forecasting exercises of this kind rely on structural or event data, but these have\r\nmany limitations in the poorest and most war-torn states, where the need for prediction\r\nis arguably most urgent. We adopt an alternative approach, applying machine learning\r\ntechniques to original panel survey data from Liberia to predict collective, interpersonal\r\nand extrajudicial violence two years into the future. We first train our models to\r\npredict 2010 local violence using 2008 risk factors, then generate forecasts for 2012\r\nbefore collecting new data. Our models achieve out-of-sample AUCs ranging from 0.65\r\nto 0.74, depending on our specification of the dependent variable. The models also\r\ndraw our attention to risk factors different from those typically emphasized in studies\r\naimed at causal inference alone. For example, we find that while ethnic heterogeneity\r\nand polarization are reliable predictors of local violence, adverse economic shocks are\r\nnot. Surprisingly, we also find that the risk of local violence is higher rather than\r\nlower in communities where minority and majority ethnic groups share power. These\r\ncounterintuitive results illustrate the usefulness of prediction for generating new stylized\r\nfacts for future research to explain. Ours is one of just two attempts to forecast local\r\nviolence using survey data, and we conclude by discussing how our approach can be\r\nreplicated and extended as similar datasets proliferate."^^<http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#string> .
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