Satterthwaite, D; (2017) Will Africa have most of the world's largest cities in 2100? Environment and Urbanization , 29 (1) pp. 217-220. 10.1177/0956247816684711.

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Abstract

This paper responds to the article by Daniel Hoornweg and Kevin Pope, on predictions for the world’s largest cities in the 21st century, in this issue of Environment and Urbanization. It recognizes the value and importance of this article in highlighting the very large likely scale of urban population growth up to 2100 and in initiating a discussion on what this might imply for the scale and distribution of the world’s largest cities. But it raises some concerns about the extent to which very large cities will grow in what are currently nations with very low per capita incomes. Mega-cities need to be underpinned by mega-economies. The world’s largest cities up to 2100 will mostly be those where private capital has chosen to invest, and much of this may not be in the cities identified in the Hoornweg and Pope article as likely to be the largest. The economic future, the development future (including whether the Sustainable Development Goals get met) and the ecological future (especially whether dangerous climate change is avoided) will so powerfully influence future city sizes.

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