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How modifications of China's energy data affect carbon mitigation targets

Zheng, H; Shan, Y; Mi, Z; Meng, J; Ou, J; Schroeder, H; Guan, D; (2018) How modifications of China's energy data affect carbon mitigation targets. Energy Policy , 116 pp. 337-343. 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.02.031. Green open access

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Abstract

Frequent modifications to energy statistics have led to considerable uncertainty in China's ability to achieve its carbon mitigation targets. Here, we quantitatively measure the impact of energy data revisions on China's ability to achieve its mitigation targets. Our results indicate the following effects of data revisions: 1. Mitigation challenges have increased by 5%, and the achievement of national mitigation targets (as well as international pledges) might be postponed by two years. 2. Greater than expected carbon space or emission quota (from 22.94 to 31.31 Gt) will be obtained from 2015 to 2035. 3. CO 2 peak levels may become highly uncertain, with the uncertainty varying from 12% to 29%. In addition to national mitigation targets, data revision has profound implications for key industrial sectors. For example, raw coal consumption by the cement and iron and steel industries has long been underestimated, bringing uncertainty to the achievement of industrial mitigation targets. Our results reveal considerable uncertainty in China's energy data, and this uncertainty suggests that previous mitigation achievements have been overestimated and that the mitigation targets, carbon space values, and peak level estimates proposed by future mitigation schemes may not be reached.

Type: Article
Title: How modifications of China's energy data affect carbon mitigation targets
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.02.031
Publisher version: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.02.031
Language: English
Additional information: © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Mitigation; China; Uncertainty; Data revision; CO2 inventory
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
URI: https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10046421
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