Levy, Robert Graham; (2019) Modelling global human systems using a large-scale economic model, with some novel approaches to the analysis and visualisation of its outputs. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

We present an international economic model which follows the input-output and computable general equilibrium (CGE) literatures in being based in large part on empirical observation. The model is a compromise between the mathematical elegance and linear simplicity of the first approach, and the theoretically rigorous, highly non-linear nature of the second. Like both of these data-driven approaches, our new model is large-scale: each of up to around 200 countries is modelled with 35 economic sectors. This leads to challenges of both analysis and visualisation. We present some novel approaches to handling large-scale economic models which apply equally to input-output and CGE as they do to the model on which they are demonstrated here. Additionally, the model presents a simple set of coefficient, which allow for it to be extended in ways which are explicable to non-specialists and policy-makers. We present the use of these coefficient sets to study four global human systems: trade, security, migration and international development. We make the case that these are too often modelled in the context of a single country or pair of countries. Our approach shows how placing these models in a wider context offers new, broader perspectives.

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