Xia, Y;
Guan, D;
Steenge, AE;
Dietzenbacher, E;
Meng, J;
Mendoza Tinoco, D;
(2019)
Assessing the economic impacts of IT service shutdown during the York flood of 2015 in the UK.
Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
, 475
(2224)
10.1098/rspa.2018.0871.
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Abstract
In this paper we focus on the ‘Christmas’ flood in York (UK), 2015. The case is special in the sense that little infrastructure was lost or damaged, while a single industry (IT services) was completely knocked out for a limited time. Due to these characteristics, the standard modelling techniques are no longer appropriate. An alternative option is provided by the Hypothetical Extraction Method, or HEM. However, there are restrictions in using the HEM, one being that no realistic substitutes exist for inputs from industries that were affected. In this paper we discuss these restrictions and show that the HEM performs well in the York flood case. In the empirical part of this paper we show that a three-day shutdown of the IT services caused a £3.24 m to £4.23 m loss in York, which is equivalent to 10% of the three days' average GVA (Gross Value Added) of York city. The services sector (excluding IT services) sustained the greatest loss at £0.80 m, where the business support industry which was predominantly hit. This study is the first to apply a HEM in this type of flood on a daily basis.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Assessing the economic impacts of IT service shutdown during the York flood of 2015 in the UK |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1098/rspa.2018.0871 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2018.0871 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © 2019 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. |
| Keywords: | flood, economic cost, input–output analysis, indirect costs, hypothetical extraction model, York (UK) |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10074574 |
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