Portier, F;
Beaudry, P;
(2019)
Duration Dependence in US Expansions: A re-examination of the evidence.
Economics Letters
, 183
, Article 108523. 10.1016/j.econlet.2019.07.008.
Preview |
Text
NextRecessionEL.pdf - Accepted Version Download (525kB) | Preview |
Abstract
It is commonly accepted that economic expansions do not exhibit duration dependence, that is, the probability of an expansion terminating in the near future is thought to be independent of the length of the expansion. When looking at the probability of entering a recession within a year (or 2 years), we find considerable evidence of economically significant duration dependence. This pattern suggests that certain types of macroeconomic vulnerabilities may be accumulating as the expansion ages causing the arrival of a recession to become more likely
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Duration Dependence in US Expansions: A re-examination of the evidence |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.econlet.2019.07.008 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.07.008 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | Recessions, Business Cycles JEL Code: E32 |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Dept of Economics |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10077921 |
Archive Staff Only
 |
View Item |
