Varah, A; Ahodo, K; Coutts, S; Hicks, H; Comont, D; Crook, L; Hull, R; ... Norris, K; + view all Varah, A; Ahodo, K; Coutts, S; Hicks, H; Comont, D; Crook, L; Hull, R; Neve, P; Childs, D; Freckleton, P; Norris, K; - view fewer (2020) The costs of human-induced evolution in an agricultural system. Nature Sustainability , 3 pp. 63-71. 10.1038/s41893-019-0450-8.

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Abstract

Pesticides have underpinned significant improvements in global food security, albeit with associated environmental costs. Currently, the yield benefits of pesticides are threatened as overuse has led to wide-scale evolution of resistance. Despite this threat, there are no large-scale estimates of crop yield losses or economic costs due to resistance. Here, we combine national-scale density and resistance data for the weed Alopecurus myosuroides (black-grass) with crop yield maps and an economic model to estimate resistance impacts. We estimate that the annual cost of resistance in England is £0.4 billion in lost gross profit (2014 prices) and annual wheat yield loss due to resistance is 0.8 million tonnes. A total loss of herbicide control against black-grass would cost £1 billion and 3.4 million tonnes of lost wheat yield annually. Worldwide, there are 253 herbicide-resistant weeds, so the global impact of resistance could be enormous. Our research supports urgent national-scale planning to combat resistance and an incentive for increasing yields through food-production systems rather than herbicides.

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