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Sample size determination for risk-based tax auditing

Dellaportas, P; Ioannidis, E; Kotsogiannis, C; (2021) Sample size determination for risk-based tax auditing. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society , 184 (2) pp. 479-493. 10.1111/rssa.12618. Green open access

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Abstract

A modern system of Revenue Administration requires an effective and efficient management of compliance which in turn requires a well‐designed taxpayers audit strategy. The selection of taxpayers to be audited by Revenue Authorities is a non‐standard sample size determination problem, involving an initial random sample from the population and, based on the statistical information derived from it, a risk‐based auditing scheme whose sole objective is to select for auditing the taxpayers with the highest estimated risk in the population. This paper provides a methodological approach that estimates the initial optimal random sample size such that the Revenue Administration Authority maximises their expected tax revenues. The methodology is illustrated using administrative data from the UK’s Revenue Authority, Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC).

Type: Article
Title: Sample size determination for risk-based tax auditing
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12618
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12618
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Statistical Science
URI: https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10103348
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