Smith, AW;
Rae, IJ;
Forsyth, C;
Oliveira, DM;
Freeman, MP;
Jackson, DR;
(2020)
Probabilistic Forecasts of Storm Sudden Commencements from Interplanetary Shocks using Machine Learning.
Space Weather
, Article e2020SW002603. 10.1029/2020sw002603.
(In press).
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Abstract
In this study we investigate the ability of several different machine learning models to provide probabilistic predictions as to whether interplanetary shocks observed upstream of the Earth at L1 will lead to immediate (Sudden Commencements, SCs) or longer lasting magnetospheric activity (Storm Sudden Commencements, SSCs). Four models are tested including linear (Logistic Regression), non‐linear (Naive Bayes and Gaussian Process) and ensemble (Random Forest) models, and are shown to provide skillful and reliable forecasts of SCs with Brier Skill Scores (BSSs) of ~ 0:3 and ROC scores > 0:8. The most powerful predictive parameter is found to be the range in the interplanetary magnetic field. The models also produce skillful forecasts of SSCs, though with less reliability than was found for SCs. The BSSs and ROC scores returned are ~0:21 and 0.82 respectively. The most important parameter for these predictions was found to be the minimum observed BZ. The simple parameterization of the shock was tested by including additional features related to magnetospheric indices and their changes during shock impact, resulting in moderate increases in reliability. Several parameters, such as velocity and density, may be able to be more accurately predicted at a longer lead time, e.g. from heliospheric imagery. When the input was limited to the velocity and density the models were found to perform well at forecasting SSCs, though with lower reliability than previously (BSSs ~ 0:16, ROC Scores ~ 0:8), Finally, the models were tested with hypothetical extreme data beyond current observations, showing dramatically different extrapolations.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Probabilistic Forecasts of Storm Sudden Commencements from Interplanetary Shocks using Machine Learning |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1029/2020sw002603 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020sw002603 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial‐NoDerivs License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made. |
| Keywords: | Space Weather, Sudden Commencement, Interplanetary Shock, Machine Leaning, Forecast |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Space and Climate Physics |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10113281 |
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