Wilkie, D;
Galasso, C;
(2021)
Gaussian process regression for fatigue reliability analysis of offshore wind turbines.
Structural Safety
, 88
, Article 102020. 10.1016/j.strusafe.2020.102020.
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Abstract
The fatigue limit state (FLS) often drives the design of offshore wind turbine (OWT) substructures in European waters. Assessing fatigue damage over the intended design life of an OWT is computationally expensive, primarily as dynamic structural analyses have to be run for a large number of stochastic wind and wave loading conditions. This makes structural reliability assessment for the FLS a challenging task. In addition to evaluating load-induced fatigue damage, simulation-based structural reliability analysis also requires sampling of random variables that model uncertainties in the capacity of OWT structural components. To this aim, we develop and validate a computational framework for OWT fatigue reliability analysis that relies on Gaussian process (GP) regression to build surrogate models of load-induced fatigue damage. We demonstrate that the proposed approach can reduce the computational effort required to evaluate FLS reliability with high accuracy through application to three plausible offshore wind farm sites in Europe. The sensitivity of various goodness-of-fit metrics to different model assumptions is investigated to further reduce the computational effort required to perform GP regression/predictions. The results from this study can provide guidance for practical applications of the proposed framework in OWT projects.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Gaussian process regression for fatigue reliability analysis of offshore wind turbines |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.strusafe.2020.102020 |
| Publisher version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2020.102020 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10115508 |
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