Mustafina, SV;
Rymar, OD;
Shcherbakova, LV;
Verevkin, EG;
Pikhart, H;
Sazonova, OV;
Ragino, YI;
... Voevoda, MI; + view all
(2021)
The Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in a Russian Population Cohort According to Data from the HAPIEE Project.
Journal of Personalized Medicine
, 11
(2)
, Article 119. 10.3390/jpm11020119.
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Abstract
The aim of this study is to investigate the 14-year risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and develop a risk score for T2DM in the Siberian cohort. A random population sample (males/females, 45–69 years old) was examined at baseline in 2003–2005 (Health, Alcohol, and Psychosocial Factors in Eastern Europe (HAPIEE) project, n = 9360, Novosibirsk) and re-examined in 2006–2008 and 2015–2017. After excluding those with baseline T2DM, the final analysis included 7739 participants. The risk of incident T2DM during a 14-year follow-up was analysed using Cox regression. In age-adjusted models, male and female hazard ratios (HR) of incident T2DM were 5.02 (95% CI 3.62; 6.96) and 5.13 (95% CI 3.56; 7.37) for BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2; 4.38 (3.37; 5.69) and 4.70 (0.27; 6.75) for abdominal obesity (AO); 3.31 (2.65; 4.14) and 3.61 (3.06; 4.27) for fasting hyperglycaemia (FHG); 2.34 (1.58; 3.49) and 3.27 (2.50; 4.26) for high triglyceride (TG); 2.25 (1.74; 2.91) and 2.82 (2.27; 3.49) for hypertension (HT); and 1.57 (1.14; 2.16) and 1.69 (1.38; 2.07) for family history of diabetes mellitus (DM). In addition, secondary education, low physical activity (PA), and history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) were also significantly associated with T2DM in females. A simple T2DM risk calculator was generated based on non-laboratory parameters. A scale with the best quality included waist circumference >95 cm, HT history, and family history of T2DM (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.71). The proposed 10-year risk score of T2DM represents a simple, non-invasive, and reliable tool for identifying individuals at a high risk of future T2DM.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | The Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in a Russian Population Cohort According to Data from the HAPIEE Project |
| Location: | Switzerland |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.3390/jpm11020119 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.3390/jpm11020119 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited |
| Keywords: | diabetes mellitus; risk factor; diabetes risk scale; diabetes risk model |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health > Epidemiology and Public Health |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10124191 |
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