van 't Klooster, CC;
Ridker, PM;
Cook, NR;
Aerts, JGJ;
Westerink, J;
Asselbergs, FW;
van der Graaf, Y;
(2020)
Prediction of Lifetime and 10-Year Risk of Cancer in Individual Patients With Established Cardiovascular Disease.
JACC: CardioOncology
, 2
(3)
pp. 400-410.
10.1016/j.jaccao.2020.07.001.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer share many common risk factors; patients with CVD also may be at risk of developing cancer. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to derive and externally validate prediction models for the estimation of lifetime and 10-year risk for total, colorectal, and lung cancer in patients with established CVD. METHODS: Data from patients with established CVD from the UCC-SMART cohort (N ¼ 7,280) were used for model development, and from the CANTOS trial (N ¼ 9,322) for model validation. Predictors were selected based on previously published cancer risk scores, clinical availability, and presence in the derivation dataset. Fine and Gray competing risk-adjusted lifetime models were developed for the outcomes total, colorectal, and lung cancer. RESULTS: Selected predictors were age, sex, smoking, weight, height, alcohol use, antiplatelet use, diabetes, and C-reactive protein. External calibration for the 4-year risk of lung, colorectal, and total cancer was reasonable in our models, as was discrimination with C-statistics of 0.74, 0.64, and 0.63, respectively. Median predicted lifetime and 10-year risks in CANTOS were 26% (range 1% to 52%) and 13% (range 1% to 31%) for total cancer; 4% (range 0% to 13%) and 2% (range 0% to 6%) for colorectal cancer; and 5% (range 0% to 37%) and 2% (range 0% to 24%) for lung cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Lifetime and 10-year risk of total, colorectal, and lung cancer can be estimated reasonably well in patients with established CVD with readily available clinical predictors. With additional study, these tools could be used in clinical practice to further aid in the emphasis of healthy lifestyle changes and to guide thresholds for targeted diagnostics and screening.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Prediction of Lifetime and 10-Year Risk of Cancer in Individual Patients With Established Cardiovascular Disease |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jaccao.2020.07.001 |
| Publisher version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jaccao.2020.07.001 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | ª 2020 THE AUTHORS. PUBLISHED BY EL SEVIER ON BEHALF OF THE AMERICAN COLLEGE OF CARDIOLOGY FOUNDATION. THIS IS AN OPEN ACCESS ARTICLE UNDER THE CC BY-NC-ND LICENSE ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ ) . |
| Keywords: | colorectal cancer, lung cancer, risk prediction, HEART-FAILURE, COLORECTAL-CANCER, ARTERIAL-DISEASE, VALIDATION, MODEL, PREVALENCE, RATIONALE, SMART |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Health Informatics |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10125229 |
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