Milcheva, S;
(2022)
Volatility and the Cross-Section of Real Estate Equity Returns during Covid-19.
Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics
, 65
pp. 293-320.
10.1007/s11146-021-09840-6.
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Abstract
This paper uses the global systemic shock associated with the outbreak of the novel coronavirus Covid-19 to assess the risk-return relationship in the cross-section of real estate equities in the US and in selected Asian countries. I construct regional Covid-19 Risk Factors (CRFs) to assess how the risk exposure of stocks to the pandemic affects their performance. I find substantial differences between stocks in Asia and the US as a result of the pandemic. During the early stages of the pandemic, the sensitivity of Asian real estate companies to the market becomes negative, while it remains positive and increases in the US. Real estate sectors experience strong divergence in performance in the US while little sectoral difference is observed in Asia. The most affected sectors in the US are retail and hotels, while in Asia it is office. A Fama–MacBeth regression shows evidence for a low-risk effect during the Covid period: while insignificant prior to the pandemic, the return-risk relationship becomes significantly negative during the Covid period, with valuation effects driving the results in both regions. Firms in the US perform significantly worse if their exposure to the pandemic is higher, which is not the case in Asia. The results point towards strong divergence of expectations between US and Asian real estate companies in the onset of Covid-19, which may be associated with the level of prior experience to similar pandemics.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Volatility and the Cross-Section of Real Estate Equity Returns during Covid-19 |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s11146-021-09840-6 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-021-09840-6 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19 risk factor, Pandemic, Factor model, Fama–MacBeth, REITs |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > The Bartlett Sch of Const and Proj Mgt |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10126144 |
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