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A tractable Bayesian joint model for longitudinal and survival data

Alvares, D; Rubio, FJ; (2021) A tractable Bayesian joint model for longitudinal and survival data. Statistics in Medicine , 40 (19) pp. 4213-4229. 10.1002/sim.9024. Green open access

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Abstract

We introduce a numerically tractable formulation of Bayesian joint models for longitudinal and survival data. The longitudinal process is modeled using generalized linear mixed models, while the survival process is modeled using a parametric general hazard structure. The two processes are linked by sharing fixed and random effects, separating the effects that play a role at the time scale from those that affect the hazard scale. This strategy allows for the inclusion of nonlinear and time-dependent effects while avoiding the need for numerical integration, which facilitates the implementation of the proposed joint model. We explore the use of flexible parametric distributions for modeling the baseline hazard function which can capture the basic shapes of interest in practice. We discuss prior elicitation based on the interpretation of the parameters. We present an extensive simulation study, where we analyze the inferential properties of the proposed models, and illustrate the trade-off between flexibility, sample size, and censoring. We also apply our proposal to two real data applications in order to demonstrate the adaptability of our formulation both in univariate time-to-event data and in a competing risks framework. The methodology is implemented in rstan.

Type: Article
Title: A tractable Bayesian joint model for longitudinal and survival data
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1002/sim.9024
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.9024
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher's terms and conditions.
Keywords: competing risks, general hazard structure, generalized linear mixed models, power generalized weibull
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Statistical Science
URI: https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10130534
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