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A case study on the impact of fixed input parameter values in the modelling of indoor overheating

Petrou, G; Mavrogianni, A; Symonds, P; Davies, M; (2022) A case study on the impact of fixed input parameter values in the modelling of indoor overheating. In: Journal of Physics: Conference Series. (pp. 012137-012137). IOP Publishing Green open access

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Abstract

Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from buildings while also improving their environmental resilience have intensified. These efforts are often supported by building stock models which can inform policymakers on the impact of policies on energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions and the indoor environment. The input values of such models are commonly informed by reference tables, which can result in inaccurate specification and incomplete representation of the distribution of possible values. In this modelling case study of a semi-detached dwelling archetype, the influence of using a reference U-value (2.1 W/(m2K)) for solid walls in England on heat-related mortality rate is compared to a probabilistic specification based on empirical evidence (median = 1.7W/(m2K)). Using the theoretical reference U-value generally resulted in a lower indoor overheating risk compared to the use of the empirically derived U-values pre-retrofit, but a larger increase in heat-related mortality rate following internal wall insulation (1.20%) than the use of the empirical median (0.94%, 95 % Confidence Interval = 0.87–0.99 %). This highlights the potentially significant implications of using fixed reference values. Future work will employ this probabilistic framework on multiple influential parameters.

Type: Proceedings paper
Title: A case study on the impact of fixed input parameter values in the modelling of indoor overheating
Event: 8th International Building Physics Conference (IBPC 2021)
Location: Copenhagen Denmark
Dates: 25 August 2021 - 27 August 2021
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1088/1742-6596/2069/1/012137
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/2069/1/012137
Language: English
Additional information: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third-party material in this article are included in the Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10136389
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