Wang, Shizhen;
Hartzell, David;
(2022)
What influences real estate volatility in Hong Kong? An ARMA-GARCH approach.
International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
, 15
(1)
pp. 19-34.
10.1108/ijhma-08-2020-0099.
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Abstract
Purpose: This paper aims to examine real estate price volatility in Hong Kong. Monthly data on housing, offices, retail and factories in Hong Kong were analyzed from February 1993 to February 2019 to test whether volatility clusters are present in the real estate market. Real estate price determinants were also investigated. / Design/methodology/approach: Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity–Lagrange multiplier test is used to examine the volatility clustering effects in these four kinds of real estate. An autoregressive and moving average model–generalized auto regressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model was used to identify real estate price volatility determinants in Hong Kong. / Findings: There was volatility clustering in all four kinds of real estate. Determinants of price volatility vary among different types of real estate. In general, housing volatility in Hong Kong is influenced primarily by the foreign exchange rate (both RMB and USD), whereas commercial real estate is largely influenced by unemployment. The results of the exponential GARCH model show that there were no asymmetric effects in the Hong Kong real estate market. / Research limitations/implications: This volatility pattern has important implications for investors and policymakers. Residential and commercial real estate have different volatility determinants; investors may benefit from this when building a portfolio. The analysis and results are limited by the lack of data on real estate price determinants. / Originality/value: To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first study that evaluates volatility in the Hong Kong real estate market using the GARCH class model. Also, this paper is the first to investigate commercial real estate price determinants.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | What influences real estate volatility in Hong Kong? An ARMA-GARCH approach |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1108/ijhma-08-2020-0099 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-08-2020-0099 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | Hong Kong, GARCH, Commercial real estate, Asymmetric effects, Housing volatility, Volatility clustering |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10137548 |
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