Cremen, G; Galasso, C; McCloskey, J; (2022) Modelling and quantifying tomorrow's risks from natural hazards. Science of The Total Environment , 817 , Article 152552. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152552.

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Abstract

Understanding and modelling future risks from natural hazards is becoming increasingly crucial as the climate changes, human population grows, asset wealth accumulates, and societies become more urbanised and interconnected. This need is recognised by the 2015-2030 Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, which emphasises the importance of preparing for the disasters that our world may face tomorrow through strategies/policies that aim to minimise uncontrolled development in hazardous areas. While the vast majority of natural-hazard risk-assessment frameworks have so far focused on static impacts associated with current conditions and/or are influenced by historical context, some authors have sought to provide decision makers with risk-quantification approaches that can be used to cultivate a sustainable future. This Review documents these latter efforts, explicitly examining work that has modelled and quantified the individual components that comprise tomorrow's risk, i.e., future natural hazards affected by climate change, future exposure (e.g., in terms of population, land use, and the built environment), and the evolving physical vulnerabilities of the world's infrastructure. We end with a discussion on the challenges faced by modellers in determining the risks that tomorrow's world may face from natural hazards, and the constraints these place on the decision-making abilities of relevant stakeholders.

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