Millard, Joseph William; (2022) Causes and consequences of global pollinator biodiversity change in the Anthropocene. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

87.5% of wild plant species are thought to be pollinated to some extent by animals, with an estimated global value of $235-577 billion US dollars per annum to crop pollination. Across North America and Europe numerous studies have documented declines in pollinating animals. A number of anthropogenic drivers—primarily land-use and climate change—have been associated with these losses. However, the extent to which land-use and climate act individually and synergistically to drive changes, and how this might risk the contribution pollinators make to crop pollination, is still unclear. In this thesis I explore the causes and potential consequences of pollinator biodiversity change. First, I use a set of name-entity recognition algorithms to quantify the geographic and taxonomic distribution of the animal pollination literature, confirming that although the pollination literature does over-represent the honey bees and bumblebees of North America and Europe, there is also pollination information across a range of other taxa and locations. Second, I then apply these same algorithms in combination with a manual literature check to identify a set of likely pollinating species. I then use this set of likely pollinating species and a database of local biodiversity records to model the global response of pollinator biodiversity to land-use type and intensity, showing how response differs among taxonomic groups, biodiversity metrics, and geographic regions. Third, I then use my set of likely pollinating species to investigate the interactive effects of land use and climate change on pollinator abundance, demonstrating a strongly negative synergistic interaction between climate change and land use. Using this model, estimations of global pollination dependent production, and future climate scenarios, I then project temporal and spatial changes in crop pollination risk. Fourth, I develop a new metric of biodiversity awareness using Wikipedia page views, which I use to show that public interest in pollinators has likely not increased. I conclude by discussing the core findings of my thesis in the context of the current debate around pollinator biodiversity change and conservation culturomics, with some suggestions as to how these respective fields might move forward.

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