Ioannou, Ioanna;
Cadena, Jaime E;
Aspinall, Willy;
Lange, David;
Honfi, Daniel;
Rossetto, Tiziana;
(2022)
Prioritization of hazards for risk and resilience management through elicitation of expert judgement.
Natural Hazards
10.1007/s11069-022-05287-x.
(In press).
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Abstract
Risk assessment in communities or regions typically relies on the determination of hazard scenarios and an evaluation of their impact on local systems and structures. One of the challenges of risk assessment for infrastructure operators is how to identify the most critical scenarios that are likely to represent unacceptable risks to such assets in a given time frame. This study develops a novel approach for prioritizing hazards for the risk assessment of infrastructure. Central to the proposed methodology is an expert elicitation technique termed paired comparison which is based on a formal mathematical technique for quantifying the range and variance in the judgements of a group of stakeholders. The methodology is applied here to identify and rank natural and operational hazard scenarios that could cause serious disruption or have disastrous effects to the infrastructure in the transnational Øresund region over a period of 5 years. The application highlighted substantial divergences of views among the stakeholders on identifying a single ‘most critical’ natural or operational hazard scenario. Despite these differences, it was possible to flag up certain cases as critical among the natural hazard scenarios, and others among the operational hazards.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Prioritization of hazards for risk and resilience management through elicitation of expert judgement |
| Location: | Netherlands |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s11069-022-05287-x |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05287-x |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
| Keywords: | Science & Technology, Physical Sciences, Geosciences, Multidisciplinary, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Water Resources, Geology, Paired comparison, Stakeholders, Natural hazards, Operational hazards, MODEL, INFRASTRUCTURE, SYSTEMS, CITIES |
| UCL classification: | UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10147943 |
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