Bonetti, Sara;
Sutanudjaja, Edwin H;
Mabhaudhi, Tafadzwanashe;
Slotow, Rob;
Dalin, Carole;
(2022)
Climate change impacts on water sustainability of South African crop production.
Environmental Research Letters
10.1088/1748-9326/ac80cf.
(In press).
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Abstract
Agricultural production in arid and semi-arid regions is particularly vulnerable to climate change, which, combined with projected food requirements, makes the sustainable management of water resources critical to ensure national and global food security. Using South Africa as an example, we map the spatial distribution of water use by seventeen major crops under current and future climate scenarios, and assess their sustainability in terms of water resources, using the water debt repayment time indicator. We find high water debts, indicating unsustainable production, for potatoes, pulses, grapes, cotton, rice, and wheat due to irrigation in arid areas. Climate change scenarios suggest an intensification of such pressure on water resources, especially in regions already vulnerable, with a country-scale increase in irrigation demand of between 6.5% and 32% by 2090. Future land use planning and management should carefully consider the spatial distribution and local sustainability of crop water requirements to reduce water consumption in water risk hotspots and guarantee long-term food security.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Climate change impacts on water sustainability of South African crop production |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1088/1748-9326/ac80cf |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac80cf |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third-party material in this article are included in the Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| UCL classification: | UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10152358 |
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