Chrysafi, A;
Virkki, V;
Jalava, M;
Sandström, V;
Piipponen, J;
Porkka, M;
Lade, SJ;
... Kummu, M; + view all
(2022)
Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation.
Nature Sustainability
10.1038/s41893-022-00940-6.
(In press).
Preview |
Text
s41893-022-00940-6.pdf - Published Version Download (4MB) | Preview |
Abstract
Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, identifying many interactions little explored in Earth system literature. We found that green water and land system change affect other Earth system processes strongly, while land, freshwater and ocean components of biosphere integrity are the most impacted by other Earth system processes, most notably blue water and biogeochemical flows. We also mapped a complex network of mechanisms mediating these interactions and created a future research prioritization scheme based on interaction strengths and existing knowledge gaps. Our study improves the understanding of Earth system interactions, with sustainability implications including improved Earth system modelling and more explicit biophysical limits for future food production.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41893-022-00940-6 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-00940-6 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third-party material in this article are included in the Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| UCL classification: | UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Dept of Geography UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10154883 |
Archive Staff Only
 |
View Item |
