Dray, Lynnette; Schäfer, Andreas W; Grobler, Carla; Falter, Christoph; Allroggen, Florian; Stettler, Marc EJ; Barrett, Steven RH; (2022) Cost and emissions pathways towards net-zero climate impacts in aviation. Nature Climate Change , 12 pp. 956-962. 10.1038/s41558-022-01485-4.

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Abstract

Aviation emissions are not on a trajectory consistent with Paris Climate Agreement goals. We evaluate the extent to which fuel pathways—synthetic fuels from biomass, synthetic fuels from green hydrogen and atmospheric CO_{2}, and the direct use of green liquid hydrogen—could lead aviation towards net-zero climate impacts. Together with continued efficiency gains and contrail avoidance, but without offsets, such an energy transition could reduce lifecycle aviation CO_{2} emissions by 89–94% compared with year-2019 levels, despite a 2–3-fold growth in demand by 2050. The aviation sector could manage the associated cost increases, with ticket prices rising by no more than 15% compared with a no-intervention baseline leading to demand suppression of less than 14%. These pathways will require discounted investments on the order of US$0.5–2.1 trillion over a 30 yr period. However, our pathways reduce aviation CO_{2}-equivalent emissions by only 46–69%; more action is required to mitigate non-CO_{2} impacts.

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