Oliva, Cristina;
Di Maddaloni, Francesco;
Marcellusi, Andrea;
Favato, Giampiero;
(2021)
Cross-regional variations of Covid-19 mortality in Italy: an ecological study.
Journal of Public Health
, 43
(2)
pp. 261-269.
10.1093/pubmed/fdaa248.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND: Disparities in cross-regional coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) mortality remain poorly understood. The association between pre-epidemic health and epidemic mortality can inform a policy response to future outbreaks. METHOD: We conducted an ecological study of the association between the cumulative deaths attributed to Covid-19 epidemic in the 20 Italian regions and nine determinants of population health derived from a systematic review of the literature. We used a multiple least square regression to predict the cross-regional variation in mortality observed from the onset of the epidemic to 23 September 2020. RESULTS: Four independent variables best explained the cross-regional differences in the number of deaths attributed to Covid-19: the force of infection, population density, number of elderly living in assisted facilities and the standard rate of diabetes. The semi-partial correlation coefficients suggest that the force of infection and the number of elderly residents in nursing homes were the dominant predictors of the number of deaths attributed to Covid-19. Statistical controls and validation confirmed the generalizability of the predictive model. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that a significant reduction of social contacts in main metropolitan areas and the timely isolation of elderly and diabetic residents could significantly reduce the death toll of the next wave of Covid-19 infection in Italy.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Cross-regional variations of Covid-19 mortality in Italy: an ecological study |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1093/pubmed/fdaa248 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdaa248 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher's terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | infectious disease, mortality, socioeconomic factors |
| UCL classification: | UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10158223 |
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