Verrier, B;
Li, PH;
Pye, S;
Strachan, N;
(2022)
Incorporating social mechanisms in energy decarbonisation modelling.
Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions
, 45
pp. 154-169.
10.1016/j.eist.2022.10.003.
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Abstract
The achievement of national pledges that are compatible with the Paris Agreements warming limit of 1.5C is a massive challenge, as it requires not only an acceleration of technological innovation, but also a socio-economic and cultural transformation. Reducing uncertainties demands a better integration of behavioural evolutions in models exploring future energy pathways, including non-monetary barriers and drivers to technology diffusion. This study provides suggestions on incorporating social mechanisms of change such as resistance to change and the diffusion of environmental values into a UK-focused probabilistic energy system model, with a focus on people's attitudes towards residential heating technologies. We also offer a comprehensive literature review on interdisciplinary energy transitions modelling and exploratory scenarios embedding climate risks perceptions. We argue that efficient policy-making to meeting net-zero emissions targets must fully embrace whole-system approaches, support the more constrained segments of society, and account for interconnected socio-political factors.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Incorporating social mechanisms in energy decarbonisation modelling |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.eist.2022.10.003 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2022.10.003 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
| Keywords: | Socio-technical energy transitions, Energy system modelling, Heat decarbonisation, Social mechanisms, System dynamics |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10158844 |
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