Pye, Steve;
Welsby, Dan;
McDowall, Will;
Reinauer, Tobias;
Dessens, Olivier;
Winning, Matthew;
Calzadilla, Alvaro;
(2022)
Regional uptake of direct reduction iron production using hydrogen under climate policy.
Energy and Climate Change
, 3
, Article 100087. 10.1016/j.egycc.2022.100087.
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Abstract
The need to reduce CO2 emissions to zero by 2050 has meant an increasing focus on high emitting industrial sectors such as steel. However, significant uncertainties remain as to the rate of technology diffusion across steel production pathways in different regions, and how this might impact on climate ambition. Informed by empirical analysis of historical transitions, this paper presents modelling on the regional deployment of Direction Reduction Iron using hydrogen (DRI-H2). We find that DRI-H2 can play a leading role in the decarbonisation of the sector, leading to near-zero emissions by 2070. Regional spillovers from early to late adopting regions can speed up the rate of deployment of DRI-H2, leading to lower cumulative emissions and system costs. Without such effects, cumulative emissions are 13% higher than if spillovers are assumed and approximately 15% and 20% higher in China and India respectively. Given the estimates of DRI-H2 cost-effectiveness relative to other primary production technologies, we also find that costs increase in the absence of regional spillovers. However, other factors can also have impacts on deployment, emission reductions, and costs, including the composition of the early adopter group, material efficiency improvements and scrap recycling rates. For the sector to achieve decarbonisation, key regions will need to continue to invest in low carbon steel projects, recognising their broader global benefit, and look to develop and strengthen policy coordination on technologies such as DRI-H2.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Regional uptake of direct reduction iron production using hydrogen under climate policy |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.egycc.2022.100087 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2022.100087 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
| Keywords: | Direct Reduction Iron, Steel decarbonisation, Technology diffusion, Spillover effects |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10159622 |
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