Chalabi, Zaid;
Foss, Anna M;
(2020)
Catastrophic Health Impacts of Spiraling Climate Change: How Certain Can We Be About Their Magnitudes?
Frontiers in Public Health
, 8
, Article 584721. 10.3389/fpubh.2020.584721.
Preview |
PDF
Chalabi_fpubh-08-584721.pdf - Published Version Download (535kB) | Preview |
Abstract
Recently, there has been a strong interest in the climate emergency and the human health impacts of climate change. Although estimates have been quoted, the modeling methods used have either been simplistic or opaque, making it difficult for policy makers to have confidence in these estimates. Providing central estimates of health impacts, without any quantification of their uncertainty, is deficient because such an approach does not acknowledge the inherent uncertainty in extreme environmental exposures associated with spiraling climate change and related health impacts. Furthermore, presenting only the uncertainty bounds around central estimates, without information on how the uncertainty in each of the model parameters and assumptions contribute to the total uncertainty, is insufficient because this approach hides those parameters and assumptions which contribute most to the total uncertainty. We propose a framework for calculating the catastrophic human health impacts of spiraling climate change and the associated uncertainties. Our framework comprises three building blocks: (A) a climate model to simulate the environmental exposure extremes of spiraling climate change; (B) a health impact model which estimates the health burdens of the extremes of environmental exposures; and (C) an analytical mathematical method which characterizes the uncertainty in (A) and (B), propagates the uncertainty in-between and through these models, and attributes the proportion of uncertainty in the health outcomes to model assumptions and parameter values. Once applied, our framework can be of significant value to policy makers because it handles uncertainty transparently while taking into account the complex interactions between climate and human health.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Catastrophic Health Impacts of Spiraling Climate Change: How Certain Can We Be About Their Magnitudes? |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.3389/fpubh.2020.584721 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2020.584721 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © 2020 Chalabi and Foss. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
| Keywords: | human health impacts, catastrophic health risks, climate change, mathematical modeling, handling uncertainty |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10162227 |
Archive Staff Only
 |
View Item |
