Richards, Alexandra S;
Sossen, Bianca;
Emery, Jon C;
Horton, Katherine C;
Heinsohn, Torben;
Frascella, Beatrice;
Balzarini, Federica;
... Houben, Rein MGJ; + view all
(2023)
Quantifying progression and regression across the spectrum of pulmonary tuberculosis: a data synthesis study.
Lancet Global Health
10.1016/S2214-109X(23)00082-7.
(In press).
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Abstract
BACKGROUND: Prevalence surveys show a substantial burden of subclinical (asymptomatic but infectious) tuberculosis, from which individuals can progress, regress, or even persist in a chronic disease state. We aimed to quantify these pathways across the spectrum of tuberculosis disease. METHODS: We created a deterministic framework of untreated tuberculosis disease with progression and regression between three states of pulmonary tuberculosis disease: minimal (non-infectious), subclinical (asymptomatic but infectious), and clinical (symptomatic and infectious). We obtained data from a previous systematic review of prospective and retrospective studies that followed and recorded the disease state of individuals with tuberculosis in a cohort without treatment. These data were considered in a Bayesian framework, enabling quantitative estimation of tuberculosis disease pathways with rates of transition between states and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS: We included 22 studies with data from 5942 individuals in our analysis. Our model showed that after 5 years, 40% (95% UI 31·3-48·0) of individuals with prevalent subclinical disease at baseline recover and 18% (13·3-24·0) die from tuberculosis, with 14% (9·9-19·2) still having infectious disease, and the remainder with minimal disease at risk of re-progression. Over 5 years, 50% (40·0-59·1) of individuals with subclinical disease at baseline never develop symptoms. For those with clinical disease at baseline, 46% (38·3-52·2) die and 20% (15·2-25·8) recover from tuberculosis, with the remainder being in or transitioning between the three disease states after 5 years. We estimated the 10-year mortality of people with untreated prevalent infectious tuberculosis to be 37% (30·5-45·4). INTERPRETATION: For people with subclinical tuberculosis, classic clinical disease is neither an inevitable nor an irreversible outcome. As such, reliance on symptom-based screening means a large proportion of people with infectious disease might never be detected. FUNDING: TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium and European Research Council.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Quantifying progression and regression across the spectrum of pulmonary tuberculosis: a data synthesis study |
| Location: | England |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/S2214-109X(23)00082-7 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(23)00082-7 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third-party material in this article are included in the Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Inst of Clinical Trials and Methodology |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10167739 |
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