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Seasonality, Mass Vaccination and critical policy evaluation on Global Exit Strategy of COVID-19 crisis

Roy, Indrani; Chapungu, Lazarus; Nyambiya, Isaac; (2023) Seasonality, Mass Vaccination and critical policy evaluation on Global Exit Strategy of COVID-19 crisis. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth , 130 , Article 103388. 10.1016/j.pce.2023.103388. Green open access

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Abstract

There is a strong coordinated effort by vaccination groups all over the world to put an end to the current crisis of COVID-19. Now sufficient data are available to analyse and compare some results to explore the aftereffects of vaccination. Some influence variables on transmissions of the disease were discussed e.g., mass vaccination, lockdown and seasonality. Most studies covered here are up to the beginning of July 2022, while some analyses focused on the earlier period of mass vaccination. Well established, simple statistical techniques to evaluate results were presented those used open data sources of authoritative bodies. Some comparisons between vaccinated vs. unvaccinated were also discussed based on data from UK Government Health Security Agency (UHSA). In terms of mass vaccination, adverse reactions after vaccination received attention, as health and safety issues of the general public are of prime importance. Apart from direct side effects, the secondary effect of mass vaccination needs attention too. After the initiation of the vaccination programme, almost all countries experienced a sudden surge in transmission and most countries had to impose strict lockdown measures. Many countries, with a low prevalence of disease, suddenly showed a steep jump and some countries even followed a synchronized pattern between the rate of transmissions and the variation of vaccine doses. Time series analyses and bar diagram presentations were able to capture those features. In that context, fast mutation of the virus and new variants after mass vaccination and possible mechanisms/consequences were also attended. To understand the effect of seasonality, similarities between COVID-19 and the seasonal Flu are discussed for Europe and US to gain useful insight. Using time series analyses and spatial plots of regional temperature composites we showed, like Flu, seasonality played a dominant role in transmissions of COVID-19 in the Europe. Regulations of vaccine dose and policy implication were explored too. From 22nd December 2021, global vaccine doses were reduced substantially, which followed a dramatic reduction in cases and thereafter deaths with around one month's lag between each. As strong dependency on seasonality is noticed in certain countries and observing that regulation of vaccine doses has roles in modulating the transmission with certain lags, globally as well as regionally, our results have policy implications for the management of COVID. Debating, questioning and criticism are always the foundation of great science and the major pillars of its progress. Following that objective, it is an effort to explore pragmatically, supported by scientific analyses, areas relating to the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine and the exit strategy via the pathway of vaccination.

Type: Article
Title: Seasonality, Mass Vaccination and critical policy evaluation on Global Exit Strategy of COVID-19 crisis
Location: England
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2023.103388
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2023.103388
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © 2023 The Authors. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Keywords: Science & Technology, Physical Sciences, Geosciences, Multidisciplinary, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Water Resources, Geology, COVID-19, Seasonality, Vaccine, Flu, Temperature, Peer -review, Transparency, Clinical trial, Solutions, Mass vaccination, RELATIVE-HUMIDITY
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Earth Sciences
URI: https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10168668
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