Yi, Jiahuan;
Martynov, Sergey;
Mahgerefteh, Haroun;
(2023)
Puncture Failure Size Probability Distribution for CO2 Pipelines.
International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control
, 125
, Article 103889. 10.1016/j.ijggc.2023.103889.
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Abstract
The safe operation of pressurised CO2 pipelines is key to the success of Carbon Capture and Storage as a viable means for tackling global warming. However, given their relatively small number currently in operation, the confident prediction of their puncture size failure probability and how it compares with hydrocarbon pipelines are fundamentally important questions that must be resolved. This paper presents the development and application of a robust statistical analytical technique for the confident prediction of the puncture failure size probability distribution for CO2 pipelines. The above involves fitting statistical distributions to the historical puncture size failure data using the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE). The minimum acceptable sample size sufficient for acquiring a reliable MLE is determined by calculating the mean squared error of the MLE as a function of the data sample size. To improve the estimation confidence, given the scarcity of historical failure data, the bootstrapping method is employed to obtain the 95% confidence interval of the MLE. The application of the above technique to pressurised CO2 and hydrocarbon pipelines indicates that as compared to the latter, CO2 pipelines are more likely to experience smaller puncture size failures (e.g. 50 mm), thus resulting in smaller magnitude but more prolonged releases. This directly impacts the preventive and emergency response planning required especially in the case of buried CO2 pipelines where small leaks can remain undetected for long periods.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Puncture Failure Size Probability Distribution for CO2 Pipelines |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.ijggc.2023.103889 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2023.103889 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), CO2 pipelines, High-pressure pipeline safety, Pipeline failure probability distribution |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Chemical Engineering |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10169047 |
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