Chungkham, HS;
Högnäs, RS;
Head, J;
Zaninotto, P;
Westerlund, H;
(2023)
Estimating Working Life Expectancy: A Comparison of Multistate Models.
SAGE Open
, 13
(2)
10.1177/21582440231177270.
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Abstract
Increases in retirement ages make it particularly pressing to better understand how long people will work. Working life expectancy (WLE) is a useful measure for this and the current paper assesses the tools, that is, software packages, available to assess it. We do this using data from the English Longitudinal Survey on Ageing (ELSA, 2003–2018) and multistate models to estimate WLE stratified by sex and socioeconomic status. Men’s versus women’s WLEs were slightly higher at all ages. Estimates were similar in ELECT and SPACE by both sex and socioeconomic status. WLEs were comparatively higher from IMaCh, ranging from approximately 0.28 to 1.49 years. Life expectancy estimates from IMaCh were also higher compared to SPACE and ELECT. Using multistate models to estimate WLE provides a useful indication of the actual expected length of working life. More research is needed to better understand why estimates from IMaCh differed from ELECT and SPACE.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Estimating Working Life Expectancy: A Comparison of Multistate Models |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1177/21582440231177270 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440231177270 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © The Author(s) 2023. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits any use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access page (https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/open-access-at-sage). |
| Keywords: | multistate models, aging and the life course, occupation, working life expectancy |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health > Epidemiology and Public Health |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10172248 |
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