Guo, Junhong;
Shen, Yangshuo;
Wang, Xiuquan;
Liang, Xi;
Liu, Zhenlu;
Liu, Lvliu;
(2023)
Evaluation and projection of precipitation extremes under 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C GWLs over China using bias-corrected CMIP6 models.
iScience
, 26
(4)
, Article 06179. 10.1016/j.isci.2023.106179.
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Abstract
China is facing an increasing challenge from severe precipitation-related extremes with accelerating global warming. In this study, using a bias-corrected CMIP6 ensemble, future responses of precipitation extreme indices at 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming levels (GWLs) under the SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios are investigated. Despite different change magnitudes, extreme precipitation events will be more frequent and more intense over China as a whole under higher emissions and GWLs. The increase in annual total precipitation could attribute to a sharp increase in the intensity and days of very heavy precipitation in future global warming scenarios. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C and low emission pathways (i.e., SSP245) instead of 2°C and high emission pathways (i.e., SSP585) would have substantial benefits for China in terms of reducing occurrences of extreme precipitation events.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Evaluation and projection of precipitation extremes under 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C GWLs over China using bias-corrected CMIP6 models |
| Location: | United States |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.isci.2023.106179 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2023.106179 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © 2023 The Authors. Original content in this paper is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) Licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
| Keywords: | Atmospheric science, Global change, Meteorology |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10173501 |
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