Liu, L; He, G; Wu, M; Liu, G; Zhang, H; Chen, Y; Shen, J; Liu, L; He, G; Wu, M; Liu, G; Zhang, H; Chen, Y; Shen, J; Li, S; - view fewer (2023) Climate change impacts on planned supply–demand match in global wind and solar energy systems. Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-023-01304-w. (In press).

Preview

PDF s41560-023-01304-w.pdf - Published Version Download (3MB) | Preview

Abstract

Climate change modulates both energy demand and wind and solar energy supply but a globally synthetic analysis of supply–demand match (SDM) is lacking. Here, we use 12 state-of-the-art climate models to assess climate change impacts on SDM, quantified by the fraction of demand met by local wind or solar supply. For energy systems with varying dependence on wind or solar supply, up to 32% or 44% of non-Antarctic land areas, respectively, are projected to experience robust SDM reductions by the end of this century under an intermediate emission scenario. Smaller and more variable supply reduces SDM at northern middle-to-high latitudes, whereas reduced heating demand alleviates or reverses SDM reductions remarkably. By contrast, despite supply increases at low latitudes, raised cooling demand reduces SDM substantially. Changes in climate extremes and climate mean make size-comparable contributions. Our results provide early warnings for energy sectors in climate change adaptation.

Download activity - last month

Export as CSVJSONXML

Download activity - last 12 months

Export as CSVJSONXML

Downloads by country - last 12 months

Export as JSONXMLCSV

Archive Staff Only

View Item