Crawford, AD;
Rosenblum, E;
Lukovich, JV;
Stroeve, JC;
(2023)
Sources of seasonal sea-ice bias for CMIP6 models in the Hudson Bay Complex.
Annals of Glaciology
10.1017/aog.2023.42.
(In press).
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Abstract
The seasonal ice-free period in the Hudson Bay Complex (HBC) has grown longer in recent decades in response to warming, both from progressively earlier sea-ice retreat in summer and later sea-ice advance in fall. Such changes disrupt the HBC ecosystem and ice-based human activities. In this study, we compare 102 simulations from 37 models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to the satellite passive microwave record and atmospheric reanalyses. We show that, throughout the HBC, models simulate an ice-free period that averages 30 d longer than in satellite observations. This occurs because seasonal sea-ice advance is unrealistically late and seasonal sea-ice retreat is unrealistically early. We find that much of the ice-season bias can be linked to a warm bias in the atmosphere that is associated with a southerly wind bias, especially in summer. Many models also exhibit an easterly wind bias during winter and spring, which reduces sea-ice convergence on the east side of Hudson Bay and impacts the spatial patterns of summer sea-ice retreat. These results suggest that, for many models, more realistic simulation of atmospheric circulation would improve their simulation of HBC sea ice.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Sources of seasonal sea-ice bias for CMIP6 models in the Hudson Bay Complex |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1017/aog.2023.42 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.42 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of The International Glaciological Society. This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the same Creative Commons licence is used to distribute the re-used or adapted article and the original article is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained prior to any commercial use. |
| Keywords: | Ice and climate, sea ice, sea-ice growth and decay |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Earth Sciences |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10175684 |
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