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Decoupling speciation and extinction reveals both abiotic and biotic drivers shaped 250 million years of diversity in crocodile-line archosaurs

Payne, Alexander RD; Mannion, Philip D; Lloyd, Graeme T; Davis, Katie E; (2023) Decoupling speciation and extinction reveals both abiotic and biotic drivers shaped 250 million years of diversity in crocodile-line archosaurs. Nature Ecology and Evolution , 8 pp. 121-132. 10.1038/s41559-023-02244-0. Green open access

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Abstract

Whereas living representatives of Pseudosuchia, crocodylians, number fewer than 30 species, more than 700 pseudosuchian species are known from their 250 million year fossil record, displaying far greater ecomorphological diversity than their extant counterparts. With a new time-calibrated tree of >500 species, we use a phylogenetic framework to reveal that pseudosuchian evolutionary history and diversification dynamics was directly shaped by the interplay of abiotic and biotic processes over hundreds of millions of years, supported by Information Theory analyses. Speciation, but not extinction, is correlated with higher temperatures in terrestrial and marine lineages, with high sea level associated with heightened extinction in non-marine taxa. Low lineage diversity and increased speciation in non-marine species is consistent with opportunities for niche-filling, whereas increased competition may have led to elevated extinction rates. In marine lineages, competition via increased lineage diversity appears to have driven both speciation and extinction. Decoupling speciation and extinction, in combination with ecological partitioning, reveals a more complex picture of pseudosuchian evolution than previously understood. As the number of species threatened with extinction by anthropogenic climate change continues to rise, the fossil record provides a unique window into the drivers that led to clade success and those that may ultimately lead to extinction.

Type: Article
Title: Decoupling speciation and extinction reveals both abiotic and biotic drivers shaped 250 million years of diversity in crocodile-line archosaurs
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1038/s41559-023-02244-0
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02244-0
Language: English
Additional information: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Earth Sciences
URI: https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10176428
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