Shingleton, Joseph;
Burton, Lucy;
Williams, Hannah E;
Finnie, Thomas JR;
Bennett, Emma;
Birrell, Paul;
Kenny, Simon;
... PSU, PIMS TS Invest Team; + view all
(2022)
Risk of paediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome (PIMS-TS) during the SARS-CoV-2 alpha and delta variant waves: National observational and modelling study, 2020-21, England.
Frontiers in Pediatrics
, 10
, Article 1034280. 10.3389/fped.2022.1034280.
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Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Paediatric Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome (PIMS-TS) is a rare life-threatening complication that typically occurs several weeks after SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and young people (CYP). We used national and regional-level data from the COVID-19 pandemic waves in England to develop a model to predict PIMS-TS cases. METHODS: SARS-CoV-2 infections in CYP aged 0-15 years in England were estimated using the PHE-Cambridge real-time model. PIMS-TS cases were identified through the British Paediatric Surveillance Unit during (March-June 2020) and through Secondary Uses Services (SUS) from November 2020. A predictive model was developed to estimate PIMS-TS risk and lag times after SARS-CoV-2 infections. RESULTS: During the Alpha wave, the model accurately predicted PIMS-TS cases (506 vs. 502 observed cases), with a median estimated risk of 0.038% (IQR, 0.037-0.041%) of paediatric SARS-CoV-2 infections. For the Delta wave, the median risk of PIMS-TS was significantly lower at 0.026% (IQR, 0.025-0.029%), with 212 observed PIMS-TS cases compared to 450 predicted by the model. CONCLUSIONS: The model accurately predicted national and regional PIMS-TS cases in CYP during the Alpha wave. PIMS-TS cases were 53% lower than predicted during the Delta wave. Further studies are needed to understand the mechanisms of the observed lower risk with the Delta variant.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Risk of paediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome (PIMS-TS) during the SARS-CoV-2 alpha and delta variant waves: National observational and modelling study, 2020-21, England |
| Location: | Switzerland |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.3389/fped.2022.1034280 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.3389/fped.2022.1034280 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © 2022 Shingleton, Burton, Williams, Finnie, Bennett, Birrell, Kenny, Watson- Koszel, Viner, Arditi, DeAngelis, Gent and Ladhani. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
| Keywords: | Science & Technology, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Pediatrics, PIMS-TS, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV-2 alpha variant, SARS-COV-2 delta variant, CHILDREN, DISEASE, VIRULENCE, RESPONSES, BACTERIAL |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > UCL GOS Institute of Child Health UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > UCL GOS Institute of Child Health > Population, Policy and Practice Dept |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10177016 |
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