Wong, Alvin; Roy, Amitava; Yim, Wyss; Roy, Indrani; (2023) Can Volcanoes be Linked to Extreme Monsoon Rainfall in Asian Countries? Presented at: Asia Oceania Geoscience Society (AOGS) 2023, Singapore.

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Abstract

In recent years, extreme weather events have increased and in this work, we explore whether volcanic eruptions- subaerial, submarine or mixed, may have a role in or trigger, any of these extreme events. Volcanic materials (sulfur dioxide, water vapour and aerosols) released by volcanic eruptions can be carried by the wind and transported to a long distance and can affect the regions far away from the eruption sites. Based on location, the strength of eruptions and it’s timings of the season, volcanos have potential to influence and alter atmospheric and oceanic circulation too. Hence, the impact of each volcanic eruption is different. Apart from circulation fields, related mechanisms that can modulate rainfall are the reduction of solar radiation, acting as condensation nuclei and complex interaction involving clouds among others. Strong volcanic eruptions can even alter ozone distribution in the stratosphere and hence can influence stratosphere-troposphere coupling. This study using observation from satellite data and rainfall records from Hong Kong Observatory revealed that volcanic eruptions have contributed to several extreme rainfall records in Hong Kong since 1963. The 1963 Agung eruption and the 1991 Pinatubo eruption can be linked to the driest year and 11th driest year of Hong Kong respectively. On the other hand, the 1982 El Chichón eruption and the 2008 Chaitén eruption could be linked to much excess precipitation in Hong Kong, the second and sixth wettest years on record respectively. Analyses on recent strong submarine volcanic eruption Hunga Tonga during 2021 (December) that reached the peak in 2022, January is also explored in connection to the recent extreme monsoon rainfall in some east Asian countries. Such analyses and in-depth understanding of the impact of volcanic eruptions on climate will not only provide a useful direction for volcanic risk assessment, but also lead to improved regional climate prediction.

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