Yang, Pu;
Mi, Zhifu;
Wei, Yi-Ming;
Hanssen, Steef V;
Liu, Lan-Cui;
Coffman, D’Maris;
Sun, Xinlu;
... Davis, Steven J; + view all
(2023)
The global mismatch between equitable carbon dioxide removal liability and capacity.
National Science Review
, Article nwad254. 10.1093/nsr/nwad254.
(In press).
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Abstract
Limiting climate change to 1.5°C and achieving net-zero emissions would entail substantial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere by mid-century, but how much CDR is needed at country level over time is unclear. The purpose of this paper is to provide a detailed description of when and how much CDR is required at country level to take in order to achieve 1.5°C and how much CDR countries can carry out domestically. We allocate global CDR pathways among 170 countries according to six equity principles and assess these allocations with respect to countries' biophysical and geophysical capacity to deploy CDR. Allocating global CDR to countries based on these principles suggests that CDR will, on average, represent ∼4% of nations' total emissions in 2030, rising to ∼17% in 2040. Moreover, equitable allocations of CDR, in many cases, exceed implied land and carbon storage capacities. We estimate ∼15% of countries (25) would have insufficient land to contribute an equitable share of global CDR, and ∼40% of countries (71) would have insufficient geological storage capacity. Unless more diverse CDR technologies are developed, the mismatch between CDR liabilities and land-based CDR capacities will lead to global demand for 6 GtCO2 carbon credits from 2020 to 2050. This demonstrates an imperative demand for international carbon trading of CDR.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | The global mismatch between equitable carbon dioxide removal liability and capacity |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1093/nsr/nwad254 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwad254 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of China Science Publishing & Media Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Keywords: | Carbon dioxide removal, Land-based solutions, International equity |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10178415 |
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