Hanley, Seán L; Sikk, Allan; (2012) Paths to "Centrist Populism"? Explaining the Emergence of Anti-Establishment Reform Parties. In: Proceedings of the 22nd World Congress (Reshaping Power, Shifting Boundaries). IPSA: Madrid, Spain.

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Abstract

WWe discuss an emerging group of successful parties in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) that combine anti-establishment appeals with support for moderate policies of political and social reform, which we term anti-establishment reform parties (AERPs). Examples include the Simeon II National Movement (Bulgaria), Res Publica (Estonia), New Era (Latvia), Freedom and Solidarity (Slovakia), and TOP09 and Public Affairs (Czech Republic). We carry out a comparative analysis using the two step Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) technique developed as proposed by Schneider and Wagemann to identify the conditions under which AERPs made electoral breakthroughs in the period 1998-2011. We identify five sufficient paths for AERP breakthrough representing distinct combinations of several causal conditions: low but rising corruption, rising unemployment, previous success of new parties, increasing turnout, the presence of marketliberal incumbents, and strength of radical outsider parties. We conclude by reviewing the implications of our findings for further research.

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