Shahin, AH;
Zhao, A;
Whitehead, AC;
Alexander, DC;
Jacob, J;
Barber, D;
(2023)
CenTime: Event-conditional modelling of censoring in survival analysis.
Medical Image Analysis
, 91
, Article 103016. 10.1016/j.media.2023.103016.
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Abstract
Survival analysis is a valuable tool for estimating the time until specific events, such as death or cancer recurrence, based on baseline observations. This is particularly useful in healthcare to prognostically predict clinically important events based on patient data. However, existing approaches often have limitations; some focus only on ranking patients by survivability, neglecting to estimate the actual event time, while others treat the problem as a classification task, ignoring the inherent time-ordered structure of the events. Additionally, the effective utilisation of censored samples−data points where the event time is unknown− is essential for enhancing the model's predictive accuracy. In this paper, we introduce CenTime, a novel approach to survival analysis that directly estimates the time to event. Our method features an innovative event-conditional censoring mechanism that performs robustly even when uncensored data is scarce. We demonstrate that our approach forms a consistent estimator for the event model parameters, even in the absence of uncensored data. Furthermore, CenTime is easily integrated with deep learning models with no restrictions on batch size or the number of uncensored samples. We compare our approach to standard survival analysis methods, including the Cox proportional-hazard model and DeepHit. Our results indicate that CenTime offers state-of-the-art performance in predicting time-to-death while maintaining comparable ranking performance. Our implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/ahmedhshahin/CenTime.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | CenTime: Event-conditional modelling of censoring in survival analysis |
| Location: | Netherlands |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.media.2023.103016 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.media.2023.103016 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third-party material in this article are included in the Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| Keywords: | Censoring, Deep Learning, Survival Analysis |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Div of Medicine UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Chemical Engineering UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Computer Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Div of Medicine > Respiratory Medicine |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10180931 |
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