Ozer, Ekin;
Cremen, Gemma;
Galasso, Carmine;
Gehl, Pierre;
Tubaldi, Enrico;
(2023)
An Earthquake Early Warning Decision Support System for
Railway Bridge Infrastructure.
In:
ICASP14.
(pp. pp. 1-8).
Trinity College Dublin: Dublin,Ireland.
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Abstract
Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems deliver actionable information seconds before the arrival of damaging seismic waves from an oncoming earthquake at a target site. Such information can potentially contribute to mitigating the negative impacts of earthquakes on the operation of infrastructure assets. EEW-related decision making should use risk-based protocols, and the evaluation of the benefits of EEW systems should address all the possible rupture scenarios that may affect a specific location (or asset). This paper addresses these requirements for EEW on railway bridge structures. We first develop a risk-informed EEW decision support system (DSS) for these assets, combining information on site-specific seismic hazard, time-dependent EEW algorithm outputs, probabilistic seismic demand modeling, damage and derailment fragilities, and seismic loss models. These components are integrated into a multi-criteria decision-making framework that accounts for diverse stakeholder perspectives on risk. We then propose an approach for quantifying the loss-mitigation benefits (i.e., effectiveness) of the EEW-DSS across all possible relevant rupture scenarios affecting a railway bridge, based on value of information theory and accounting for dynamic accuracy/lead-time trade-offs related to EEW performance. A multi-span reinforced concrete railway bridge in Northeastern Spain is adopted as a testbed to showcase the proposed EEW-DSS and investigate its benefits. The findings from the analysis shed light on the importance of risk-based, uncertainty-informed, and stakeholder-oriented decision making to the loss-mitigation effectiveness of EEW for a railway bridge.
| Type: | Proceedings paper |
|---|---|
| Title: | An Earthquake Early Warning Decision Support System for Railway Bridge Infrastructure |
| Event: | 14th International Conference On Application Of Statistics And Probability In Civil Engineering, ICASP14 |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| Publisher version: | https://icasp14.com/presenter/proceedings/ |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the version of record. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10181509 |
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