Tocchi, Gabriella; Cremen, Gemma; Galasso, Carmine; Polese, Maria; (2023) Development of a multi-risk index for Italy: a tool for supporting informed decision making on disaster risk reduction prioritisation. In: ICASP14. (pp. pp. 1-8). Trinity College Dublin: Dublin,Ireland.

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Abstract

Effective disaster-risk management decision making relies on holistic multi-risk quantification approaches. Such approaches should capture the effects of multiple (natural) hazards, facilitating the development and implementation of appropriate preparedness and mitigation strategies. They should also account for social vulnerability factors, which may significantly influence how different communities respond to and cope with hazardous events. We propose a straightforward multi-risk index that integrates both of these crucial considerations. The index appropriately accounts for uncertainties, relying on probabilistic distributions of hazard inputs, physical and social vulnerability indices, and population exposure for each individual risk of interest. The resulting individual risk scores are combined through suitable weights that explicitly reflect variable stakeholder perspectives in related policymaking. We demonstrate the index for earthquake and flood risk across the entire country of Italy (at the resolution of municipalities) using easily accessible data. The proposed metric identifies hotspots across the Italian territory that should be prioritised for actions that promote disaster risk reduction. Sensitivity analyses of metric weights reveal how these hotspots can change as a function of stakeholder preferences and/or variations in the emphasis placed on different types of hazards, ultimately underlining the importance of accounting for accurate stakeholder feedback and adopting a holistic view of risk in disaster-related decision making. A prominent advantage of the proposed index is that it is relatively simple and could be easily adopted for practical multi-risk decision support across any other national or transnational context of interest.

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