Duffey, Alistair;
Mallett, Robbie;
Irvine, Peter J;
Tsamados, Michel;
Stroeve, Julienne;
(2023)
ESD Ideas: Arctic amplification's contribution to breaches of the Paris Agreement.
Earth System Dynamics
, 14
(6)
pp. 1165-1169.
10.5194/esd-14-1165-2023.
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Abstract
The Arctic is warming at almost 4 times the global average rate. Here we reframe this amplified Arctic warming in terms of global climate ambition to show that without Arctic amplification, the world would breach the Paris Agreement's 1.5 and 2 ∘C limits 5 and 8 years later, respectively. We also find the Arctic to be a disproportionate contributor to uncertainty in the timing of breaches. The outsized influence of Arctic warming on global climate targets highlights the need for better modelling and monitoring of Arctic change.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | ESD Ideas: Arctic amplification's contribution to breaches of the Paris Agreement |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.5194/esd-14-1165-2023 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1165-2023 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Earth Sciences |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10181732 |
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