Iacoletti, Salvatore;
Cremen, Gemma;
Galasso, Carmine;
(2023)
Investigating long and short-term time dependencies in earthquake risk modelling.
In:
Proceedings of Conference Earthquake risk and engineering towards a resilient world (SECED 2023).
Society for Earthquake and Civil Engineering Dynamics (SECED): Cambridge, UK.
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Abstract
State-of-practice earthquake risk modelling involves several important simplifications, which neglect (1) interactions between adjacent faults; (2) the long-term elastic-rebound behaviour of faults; (3) the short-term hazard increase associated with aftershocks; and (4) damage accumulation in assets due to the occurrence of multiple earthquakes in a short time window. Several recent earthquake events (e.g., 2010 Canterbury earthquakes, New Zealand; 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes, USA; 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquakes) have emphasised the need for models to account for the aforementioned short- and long-term time-dependent characteristics of earthquake risk. This work specifically investigates the sensitivity of earthquake risk metrics to these time dependencies for a case study portfolio in Central Italy. The end-to-end approach for time-dependent earthquake risk modelling used in this study incorporates (a) recent advancements in long-term time-dependent fault modelling and aftershock forecast; (b) vulnerability models that account for damage accumulation due to multiple ground motions occurring in a short time; and (c) consideration of time-dependent catastrophe risk insurance features. The sensitivity analysis results provide valuable guidance on the importance and appropriate treatment of time dependencies in regional (i.e., portfolio) earthquake risk models. We found that the long-term fault modelling and whether or not aftershocks are accounted for are the most important features to constrain in a time-dependent seismic risk model. If a large proportion of the assets in the portfolio has a high deductible, then accounting for damage accumulation also becomes important.
| Type: | Proceedings paper |
|---|---|
| Title: | Investigating long and short-term time dependencies in earthquake risk modelling |
| Event: | Conference Earthquake risk and engineering towards a resilient world (SECED 2023) |
| Location: | Cambridge, United Kingdom |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| Publisher version: | https://www.seced.org.uk/index.php/seced-2023-proc... |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the version of record. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10183184 |
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