Lo Piano, S;
Lőrincz, MJ;
Puy, A;
Pye, S;
Saltelli, A;
Smith, ST;
van der Sluijs, J;
(2023)
Unpacking the modeling process for energy policy making.
Risk Analysis
10.1111/risa.14248.
(In press).
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Abstract
This article explores how the modeling of energy systems may lead to an undue closure of alternatives by generating an excess of certainty around some of the possible policy options. We retrospectively exemplify the problem with the case of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) global modeling in the 1980s. We discuss different methodologies for quality assessment that may help mitigate this issue, which include Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree (NUSAP), diagnostic diagrams, and sensitivity auditing (SAUD). We illustrate the potential of these reflexive modeling practices in energy policy-making with three additional cases: (i) the case of the energy system modeling environment (ESME) for the creation of UK energy policy; (ii) the negative emission technologies (NETs) uptake in integrated assessment models (IAMs); and (iii) the ecological footprint indicator. We encourage modelers to adopt these approaches to achieve more robust, defensible, and inclusive modeling activities in the field of energy research.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Unpacking the modeling process for energy policy making |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1111/risa.14248 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.14248 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © 2023 The Authors. Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Keywords: | energy systems modeling, non-neutrality of methods, NUSAP, postnormal science, sensitivity auditing, uncertainty |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10183360 |
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