Stival, M;
Bernardi, M;
Cattelan, M;
Dellaportas, P;
(2023)
Missing data patterns in runners’ careers: do they matter?
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics
, 72
(1)
pp. 213-230.
10.1093/jrsssc/qlad009.
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Abstract
Predicting the future performance of young runners is an important research issue in experimental sports science and performance analysis. We analyse a dataset with annual seasonal best performances of male middle distance runners for a period of 14 years and provide a modelling framework that accounts for both the fact that each runner has typically run in 3 distance events (800, 1,500, and 5,000 m) and the presence of periods of no running activities. We propose a latent class matrix-variate state space model and we empirically demonstrate that accounting for missing data patterns in runners’ careers improves the out of sample prediction of their performances over time. In particular, we demonstrate that for this analysis, the missing data patterns provide valuable information for the prediction of runner’s performance.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Missing data patterns in runners’ careers: do they matter? |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1093/jrsssc/qlad009 |
| Publisher version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlad009 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | Science & Technology, Physical Sciences, Statistics & Probability, Mathematics, informative missing data, longitudinal latent class analysis, matrix-variate state space model, sparse mixture model, sports performance analysis, TIME-SERIES, DETERMINANTS, PERFORMANCE, AGE |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Statistical Science |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10188452 |
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