Rossant, Cyrille;
Schneps, Leila;
(2024)
Statistical models of hospital patient fatality rates after accidental falls in children.
Applied Mathematics and Computation
, 473
, Article 128678. 10.1016/j.amc.2024.128678.
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Abstract
Pediatric traumatic brain injuries represent a public health concern globally. Epidemiological studies are essential to understand their extent, uncover risk factors and outcome predictors, and establish efficient prevention policies. Etiological investigations also benefit from epidemiological data. In young, pre-linguistic children, distinguishing between accidental and non-accidental trauma is often challenging for frontline clinicians. Classification errors can have severe repercussions for children and their families. Past influential epidemiological studies have drawn general conclusions about the etiology of pediatric traumatic brain injuries based on specific statistical information, such as hospital patient fatality rates after reported accidental falls. In this article, we use simple mathematical models to revisit one of these studies and discuss the reliability of its conclusion. We show that apparent paradoxical discrepancies, such as hospital patient fatality rates that are higher after short versus long falls, may have mathematical justification and do not necessarily justify seeking alternative etiological explanations such as non-accidental trauma.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Statistical models of hospital patient fatality rates after accidental falls in children |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.amc.2024.128678 |
| Publisher version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2024.128678 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third-party material in this article are included in the Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| Keywords: | Traumatic brain injury, Accidental falls in children, Statistical modeling, Statistical paradox |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology > Department of Neuromuscular Diseases |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10190232 |
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