Agunloye, Emmanuel;
Usman, Mohammed A;
(2021)
Predictive Modelling of Covid-19 Pandemic: World Perspective.
Presented at: 15th University of Lagos Annual Research Conference (1st Virtual), Lagos, Nigeria.
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Abstract
COVID-19, a disease caused by coronavirus, is a global pandemic currently ravaging the world. From tens of cases reported in January 2020, the disease as of August 2020 has infected over 16 million people worldwide, thus becoming a concern to everyone. Modelling can be used to describe the pandemic and assess the effectiveness of various control measures. This paper presents results from a model developed to predict the time evolution of total confirmed cases of COVID-19. The model, which is an exponential equation, is derived from the balance equation modelling, where the time evolution of cases is the accumulation term. While COVID-19 carriers’ cross-border migration can affect the cases within a society, the developed model considers a closed border scenario and mimics a batch system. Therefore, confirmed cases can only be affected by transmission within a society as well as death or recovery rate of infected cases. While death or recovery occurs days after, a carrier can begin transmission as soon as coming in contact with the disease. China, the country where the disease was first reported, did not record any death or recovery from COVIDd-19 until mid-January 2020 (Ravelo and Jerving, 2020). Neglecting death and recovery terms, the model resulted in an exponential equation. Some of the COVID-19 data reported in China from 01 – 11 January 2020 were used to obtain the exponential rate constant as 0.1706 〖day〗^(-1) at an r-squared value of 0.9963. In fourteen days, the reported period for the disease to manifest, the value of this pseudo-rate constant is 2.39. This value is comparable to the transmission rate of 2.2 reported by Sun et al. (2020). The remaining data from 01 – 11 January 2020 were used to validate the model. Model predictions yielded good agreement with reported data.
| Type: | Conference item (Presentation) |
|---|---|
| Title: | Predictive Modelling of Covid-19 Pandemic: World Perspective |
| Event: | 15th University of Lagos Annual Research Conference (1st Virtual) |
| Location: | Lagos, Nigeria |
| Dates: | 25 May 2021 |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| Publisher version: | https://unilag.edu.ng/?p=8716 |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | covid-19, coronavirus, balance equation modelling |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Chemical Engineering |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10194516 |
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