Parsons, Sam; Elliot Major, Lee; (2024) Not just grades: The far-reaching consequences of failing to gain a grade 4-9 in English and Maths GCSEs. (CLS Working Paper 2024/3). UCL Centre for Longitudinal Studies: London, UK.

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Abstract

Teenagers who perform poorly in their core GCSEs at age 16 tend to face worse outcomes not just in education but in health and wellbeing and are more likely to be involved in criminal behaviour compared to their higher achieving peers. This study draws on the UK Millennium Cohort Study to examine the post-16 experiences of teenagers at school in England who did not gain a grade 4-9 in their English language and/or Maths GCSEs [I in 5 both GCSEs; 1 in 5 one of the two exams] in comparison to most teenagers who did. We consider a range of outcomes across several domains recorded from interviews in 2018 at age 17-18. After accounting for a range of individual and family socio-economic factors, we find that those failing to get basic GCSE grades were – perhaps reasonably – less likely to expect to go to university or to have professional or managerial occupation aspirations, and to be in education, employment or training (EET). However, we also find that they were more likely than their peers to experience a range of poorer health outcomes and health behaviours: more reported to be in poor or fair health or to have a longstanding illness, to smoke or vape, and to have been stopped and questioned or formally cautioned by the police. In addition, teenagers who did not gain basic English and maths GCSEs were also more likely to have conduct or hyperactivity behaviour problems, to have experienced teenage pregnancy and made a suicide attempt; teenagers who did not gain a grade 4-9 in their English language or Maths GCSE were more likely to have taken drugs and engaged in underage sex. These results suggest that the high proportion of teenagers failing to secure basic grades in their key GCSEs is damaging not just for their education and job prospects but also for their future wellbeing. Many of these teenagers come from some of the most under resourced families in our society, highlighting that the circumstances and associated needs of these families must be better addressed if we are to minimise the challenges associated with low education being passed on to future generations of children.

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