Liu, Z; Dou, X; Yu, Y; Tan, J; Sun, T; Meng, J; (2023) China’s Embodied Carbon Transfer in Global Trade / 中国在全球贸易中的隐含碳排放转移研究. China Journal of Econometrics , 3 (4) pp. 1225-1242. 10.12012/CJoE2022-0048.

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Abstract

With the development of global trade, the scale of embodied carbon transfer among countries in the world is generally expanding, and thus an in-depth understanding of China’s embodied carbon emissions in global trade is beneficial for fighting for more carbon emission rights and achieving equitable development. By constructing CO2 emission inventories and multi-regional input-output tables, this study quantitatively estimates the embodied carbon emissions for 140 countries and regions worldwide in 2004, 2007, 2011, and 2014, and analyzes the results at the industry level. This study finds that the carbon transfers among countries further strengthened from 2004 to 2014, and the scale of embodied carbon emissions likewise continued to increase. In 2014, the amount of carbon transfers through global trade is estimated to be 5.3 billion tons, accounting for about a quarter of total global CO2 emissions. China became the center of world exports of embodied carbon emissions, undertaking more than one-fifth of carbon transfers embodied in global trade, while the United States became the center of imports. China’s net carbon emissions embodied in exports increased from 956 Mt in 2004 to 1201 Mt in 2014, making it an increasingly typical net exporter of embodied carbon. China’s export structure is mainly concentrated in energy-intensive and carbon-intensive manufacturing industries, while its import structure involves a variety of sectors, including mining, general manufacturing, and transportation. To reduce embodied carbon emissions, China should actively advocate a scientific accounting mechanism based on the shared responsibility of carbon emissions between the production side and the consumption side, so as to ensure that China receives equitable and reasonable emission credits and emission rights. Meanwhile, it is critical to rectify highly polluting industries, optimize the import and export structure, accelerate the efforts of the low-carbon transition, and improve energy efficiency. / 随着全球贸易的发展，世界各国间的隐含碳排放转移规模不断扩大，深入了解中国在全球贸易中的隐含碳排放情况有利于中国争取更多的碳排放权并实现公平性发展.通过构建二氧化碳排放清单和多区域投入产出表，本研究定量估计全球140个国家和地区在2004年、2007年、2011年和2014年全球贸易中的隐含碳排放，并从具体行业层面进行了分析.研究发现，2004—2014年各国间的碳排放交换关系进一步加强，隐含碳排放规模同样不断扩大.2014年全球贸易二氧化碳转移量高达53亿吨左右，约占全球总排放量的四分之一.中国成为世界隐含碳排放出口的中心，承担了全球五分之一以上的贸易碳转移，而美国则成为进口中心.中国净出口隐含碳从2004年的956百万吨增加到2014年的1201百万吨，成为愈发典型的隐含碳净出口国，中国出口结构主要集中于能源密集型和碳密集型的制造业，而进口结构涉及采矿业、普通制造业、交通运输业等多个部门.为减少隐含碳排放，中国应积极主张基于生产侧与消费侧共同承担碳排放责任的核算机制，以确保中国获得公平合理的排放额度和排放权，整顿高污染行业，优化进出口贸易结构，加速低碳转型的力度，提高能源利用效率.

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