Fuchs, Tom A;
Zivadinov, Robert;
Pryshchepova, Tetyana;
Weinstock-Guttman, Bianca;
Dwyer, Michael G;
Benedict, Ralph HB;
Bergsland, Niels;
... Schoonheim, Menno M; + view all
(2024)
Clinical risk stratification: Development and validation of the DAAE score, a tool for estimating patient risk of transition to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.
Multiple Sclerosis and Related Disorders
, 89
, Article 105755. 10.1016/j.msard.2024.105755.
(In press).
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Abstract
Background: Because secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) is associated with worse prognosis, early predictive tools are needed. We aimed to use systematic literature review and advanced methods to create and validate a clinical tool for estimating individual patient risk of transition to SPMS over five years. Methods: Data from the Jacobs Multiple Sclerosis Center (JMSC) and the Multiple Sclerosis Center Amsterdam (MSCA) was collected between 1994 and 2022. Participants were relapsing-remitting adult patients at initial evaluation. We created the tool in four stages: (1) identification of candidate predictors from systematic literature review, (2) ordinal cutoff determination, (3) feature selection, (4) feature weighting. Results: Patients in the development/internal-validation/external-validation datasets respectively (n = 787/n = 522/n = 877) had a median age of 44.1/42.4/36.6 and disease duration of 7.7/6.2/4.4 years. From these, 12.6 %/10.2 %/15.4 % converted to SPMS (median=4.9/5.2/5.0 years). The DAAE Score was named from included predictors: Disease duration, Age at disease onset, Age, EDSS. It ranges from 0 to 12 points, with risk groups of very-low=0–2, low=3–7, medium=8–9, and high≥10. Risk of transition to SPMS increased proportionally across these groups in development (2.7 %/7.4 %/18.8 %/40.2 %), internal-validation (2.9 %/6.8 %/26.8 %/36.5 %), and external-validation (7.5 %/9.6 %/22.4 %/37.5 %). Conclusion: The DAAE Score estimates individual patient risk of transition to SPMS consistently across datasets internationally using clinically-accessible data. With further validation, this tool could be used for clinical risk estimation.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Clinical risk stratification: Development and validation of the DAAE score, a tool for estimating patient risk of transition to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis |
| Location: | Netherlands |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.msard.2024.105755 |
| Publisher version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.msard.2024.105755 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) |
| Keywords: | Science & Technology, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Clinical Neurology, Neurosciences & Neurology, Secondary progressive multiple sclerosis, Prognostic, Prediction, Clinical, Risk Stratification, PREDICTION, BIAS |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology > Brain Repair and Rehabilitation |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10195560 |
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